For this post, I'm going to imagine that I'm building a team under a self-imposed cap of $53.6 million. I got this number by taking the range between the lower limit ($48.3mm) and the upper limit ($64.3mm) and dividing it by three, thus creating a "lower third" upper limit of $53.6 million. Currently, only seven teams in real life are below that number (WPG, NYI, NAS, CAR, PHX, COL, DAL). Keep those roster structures in mind when analyzing my team.
Also, I'm going to limit the amount of players on entry-level deals. I want to try to assemble a team that could feasibly exist. It's not realistic to say "I'm going to take all of the top draft picks from the past three years and make a team! So much potential and so cheap!" However, most NHL teams do employ multiple players on entry-level deals. I'm going to attempt to replicate that without loading up on entry-level studs too much.
Additionally, entry-level deals have CBA-restricted limits on cap hit. I want to find players who have had fair market value applied to them through non-entry-level deals, and I want to exploit those who have been undervalued.
Forwards:
Jonathan Toews (CHI) - GVT: 20.8 - Cap Hit: $6,300,000
Stud. Toews excels in every situation, has a team-friendly contract, is an incredible captain, and has done these things consistently for the past four seasons. And he's only 24. Sign us up.
Bobby Ryan (ANA) - GVT: 16.4 - Cap Hit: $5,100,000
For this hypothetical team, he would fill the role of "player that's on the fringe of stardom, but because this is a small market, we're going to market him like a secondary star" player. Locked up at a comfortable $5.1mm hit for the next four years, love his youth and progression. Getting better defensively and starting to kill penalties in real life, but we won't need him to do that here.
Dustin Brown (LA) - GVT: 13.0 - Cap Hit: $3,175,000
Ridiculously affordable, Dustin Brown is entering his age-27 season, has put up 50 points in four straight years, has high hit totals for a top line forward, can play on the power play and on the penalty kill, and has enough leadership skills to be LA captain. Signed through 2013-14, Los Angeles fans are lucky to have him.
Michael Grabner (NYI) - GVT: 16.8 - Cap Hit: $3,000,000
Got a deserved raise in the offseason after his breakout campaign, the speedy skater is still only entering his age-24 season, has been with three organizations, and has a 16.8 GVT season under his belt. Signed at the nice number of $3mm for the next five years, too.
David Krejci (BOS) - GVT: 11.2 - Cap Hit: $3,750,000
He's in the last year of his deal at this price, but we'll enjoy him while we can. A nice piece down the middle that also contributes in both ends of the rink. Starting to up his offensive game to elite levels.
Tyler Ennis (BUF) - GVT: 8.9 - Cap Hit: $875,000
As I mentioned in the introductory post, it would be like fake-salary-cap circumvention to load up a team of entry-level contracts, but real teams use young entry-level talent because it's cheaper, so this fake team is allowed to do so as well. Ennis is a rising star, a bit undersized, but makes up for it with high-level skating. Will certainly get a nice raise once his entry-level deal is up.
Frans Nielsen (NYI) - GVT: 13.1 - Cap Hit: $525,000
My vote for biggest bargain in the entire league. I'm not sure if that mathematically is the case based on GVT, but he's an absolute steal playing out the last year of a 4-year, $2.1mm contract on the Island. Kills penalties, is a defensive stud, and is starting to add a scoring touch. Too much of a value. I just added 13.1 goals to this team for $525,000. For comparison's sake, Dustin Penner contributed 4.6 goals for $4.25m.
Matt D'Agostini (STL) - GVT: 8.4 - Cap Hit: $1,650,000
A player that was forgotten about in Montreal, D'Agostini blossomed in St. Louis where he finally got a chance to showcase his offensive talents. Signed a two-year deal at $1.650mm, he'll fit nicely in a third line, secondary scoring role for this team.
Nikolai Kulemin (TOR) - GVT: 12.7 - Cap Hit: $2,350,000
Benefited from a high shooting percentage last season, but nevertheless, is a nice fit on this team as a third line player. Still only entering his age-25 season, it feels like he's been around a lot longer.
Matt Cooke (PIT) - GVT: 8.0 - Cap Hit: $1,800,000
I really think Matt Cooke's negative reputation for cheap shots is good for the Penguins. It shrouds his true talent and keeps his cap hit down. For all the flack Cooke gets for dirty hits, he deserves just as much praise for his stud penalty killing, intense forechecking, and ability to throw in some offensive touch. A controversial piece, yes, but an incredibly useful one.
Brandon Prust (NYR) - GVT: 6.3 - Cap Hit: $800,000
I hate the role of enforcer, but recognize that someone that's willing to drop the gloves is necessary. If I'm going to employ a fighter, he has to be able to contribute in other ways. Prust can do that. Not a heavyweight, but is willing to scrap with anyone, and can also kill penalties and score above his fourth-line role.
Craig Adams (PIT) - GVT: 3.5 - Cap Hit: $675,000
An undervalued forward that helps you win games in ways that don't show up in the box score. He can kill penalties, throw hits, and provide rock solid defense. I'm not expecting scoring, but these are the players you need to win Stanley Cups, and he's a total steal at $675k. He provides the intangibles you can't measure with statistics.
Erik Christensen (NYR) - GVT: 7.3 - Cap Hit: $925,000
Everyone knows Christensen's deal: he is a beast in the shootout. That makes him the perfect depth forward to me. He can contribute offensively, but having him on the roster is mainly for his shootout skill, and that's something that I think is incredibly important in today's NHL regular season.
Defensemen:
Duncan Keith (CHI) - GVT: 10.3 - Cap Hit: $5,538,462
Keith slipped last season to a 10 goal player after his Norris-winning 22 GVT campaign in 09-10. The truth is, he's probably somewhere in the middle. I'm going to count on the bounceback and plug him in as my stud, minutes-eating defender at a nice rate of $5,538,462.
Niklas Kronwall (DET) - GVT: 10.5 - Cap Hit: $3,000,000
Kronwall has one year left on his deal at $3mm. He's certainly due a big raise next season as well. For now, I'll enjoy his double digit GVT as I use him on both the power play and the penalty kill. A true all-situations defenseman.
Ryan Suter (NAS) - GVT: 10.0 - Cap Hit: $3,500,000
I'm kind of cheating here, as Suter is well-known to be in the last year of his deal and will most likely get a Shea Weber-type raise next season, because he can simply do it all.
Alex Pietrangelo (STL) - GVT: 15.1 - Cap Hit: $3,166,666
His entry-level contract slid for two straight years, as he never got the call to the show for longer than the nine-game limit. Played 79 last season and took off. The complete package, young, and still on his entry-level deal through next year.
Michael Sauer (NYR) - GVT: 7.1 - Cap Hit: $1,250,000
A pleasant surprise for the Rangers, Sauer is young and a great fit as a third-pairing defender for a great price that is locked in for next year as well.
Alec Martinez (LA) - GVT: 5.7 - Cap Hit: $737,500
His entry level deal just expired, and the 2-year extension he signed actually features a decrease in cap hit, a year after putting up a 5.7 GVT season as a 23 year old with stellar offensive potential.
Ben Lovejoy (PIT) - GVT: 6.8 - Cap Hit: $525,000
I talked about him in my manifesto post. Note that he is making the NHL minimum. Also note that Ray Shero has him signed for the said minimum for this year and next. He probably won't be making the minimum after 2013.
Goaltending:
Pekka Rinne (NAS) - GVT: 36.5 - Cap Hit: $3,400,000
Just a huge season for the UFA-to-be. Still in his 20s, and a model of consistency. Considered Price for this role due to his age, but Rinne is simply a better goaltender right now. Both are due raises this offseason
Brent Johnson (PIT) - GVT: 10.3 - Cap Hit: $600,000
The best backup goalie in the NHL. (I'd put Martin Biron 2nd in that category, by the way). Johnson has played between 21 and 23 games the past three seasons, and last year, his GVT spiked to double digits. His save percentage is likely to regress, but you can do a whole lot worse for a backup. 29 other NHL teams have, in fact.
Forwards - GVT: 146.4 - Cap Total: $30,925,000
Ryan - Toews - Brown
Ennis - Krejci - Grabner
Kulemin - Nielsen - D'Agostini
Cooke - Adams - Prust
Christensen
Defensemen - GVT: 65.5 - Cap Total: $17,717,628
Keith - Suter
Kronwall - Pietrangelo
Martinez - Sauer
Lovejoy
Goaltending - GVT: 46.8 - Cap Total: $4,000,000
Rinne
Johnson
TEAM TOTALS
Cap Number: $52,642,628
Sum of player GVT: 258.7
Expected Goal Differential aka Team GVT: 135.7
Projected Points: 136
This team would probably win the President's Trophy with ease with a projected 136 points. By GVT predictions, it would finish with a positive goal differential of 135.7. Last season, the top mark was Vancouver, with +77. The NHL record is +216, by 1976–77 Montreal Canadiens, but that was of course a different era. Since the lockout, and the salary-cap era, the record for goal differential is 103, by the 05-06 Senators.
Remember that this team would garner that high of a goal differential with a payroll that would rank it 7th lowest in the league. What does this tell us?
One, it tells us that value is out there. NHL teams don't need to drop huge money on ten-year type deals to acquire talent that can win games.
Notice the quality of forwards I have assembled. Every one has a role, and every one does that role near the top of the NHL. I especially like the penalty killing and physicality of the team.
Perhaps more importantly, notice the lack of a major gap in GVT across the board. The lower-line forwards are posting GVTs all in the 5-10 range, while the top line forwards are in the 13-20 range. This isn't typical for an NHL team, which will mostly never see more than one lower line forward touch 6-7 GVT. This tells me that you can win a lot of extra games by rounding out the team wisely. Those fourth line forwards and third pairing defenseman can make a huge difference; I've shown that here.
The most important fact, however: a lot of these guys are coming off career years. We can expect some regression. I'd expect the team GVT to probably come down to the upper double-digit range. That's still phenomenal, and we'd still have a Cup contender on our hands, it just wouldn't be historic.
This was just for fun, and I enjoyed researching these great values. Think of this not so much as a realistic team, but as a list of some values, some established players, and how they could come together to create a very successful NHL team for a price tag that any market could afford.
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